Prediction in forensic science: a critical examination of common understandings

The term “prediction” is commonly used throughout science. As part of expert language, however, the term holds a partially conflicting status because its meaning is not always properly perceived among both scientists and recipients of expert information. In judicial proceedings, for example, the meaning of “prediction” may be that of more informal language and hence be misread as a definite assertion. This is a cause of concern because it misconceives an essential aspect the actual state of affairs, that is uncertainty. In his comprehensive text Theory of Probability (1974), Bruno de Finetti explicitly highlighted a warning (de Finetti, 1974, p. 98)1: